← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero Lopez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 56% | 51% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.84 | fair |
| Eibar win | 18% | 24% | 5.35 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Cédric Bakambu · Villarreal CF |
| 31' | 🟨 | Rodri · Villarreal CF |
| 47' | 🟨 | Álvaro González · Villarreal CF |
| 50' | 🟨 | Dani García · Eibar |
| 52' | ⚽ | Cédric Bakambu · Villarreal CF |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Cédric Bakambu · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days | 30.00 | 823.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1636.03 | 1517.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.61 | -37.94 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| league points | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.10 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |