← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 68% | 70% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.78 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 12% | 9% | 8.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Esteban Rolón · Málaga CF |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Éver Banega · Sevilla FC |
| 70' | ⚽ | Luis Muriel · Sevilla FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Simon Kjær · Sevilla FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Gabriel Mercado · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days | 91.00 | 213.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1767.67 | 1597.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.99 | -46.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.58 |
| league points | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 0.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.21 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.51 | 27.16 |
| state index | 1.01 | -0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.11 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |