← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 58% | 56% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.58 | value: +6% |
| Leganes win | 15% | 15% | 6.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | 🟨 | Rubén Pérez · Leganes |
| 77' | 🟨 | Alexander Szymanowski · Leganes |
| 89' | 🟨 | Šime Vrsaljko · Club Atlético de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 1582.00 | 2130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.46 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1581.63 | 1908.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.69 | 18.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.82 |
| league points | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.10 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 22.13 |
| state index | 0.31 | 1.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |