← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 39% | 46% | 2.53 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 32% | 27% | 3.11 | fair |
| Leganes win | 30% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Raúl García · Leganes |
| 47' | ⚽ | Claudio Beauvue · Leganes |
| 58' | 🟨 | Darko Brašanac · Leganes |
| 66' | 🟨 | Mauricio Lemos · Las Palmas |
| 86' | 🟨 | Joseba Zaldúa · Leganes |
| 90' | ⚽ | Javier Eraso · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Gran Canaria |
| coach days | 85.00 | 1576.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 3.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1468.81 | 1474.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.32 | 6.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| league points | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.38 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |