← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 42% | 36% | 2.33 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.27 | value: +5% |
| Málaga CF win | 28% | 32% | 3.49 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Luis Hernández · Málaga CF |
| 4' | ⚽ (pen) | Aritz Aduriz · Athletic Club |
| 35' | ⚽ | Diego Rolán · Málaga CF |
| 49' | 🟨 | Borja Bastón · Málaga CF |
| 51' | 🟨 | Federico Ricca · Málaga CF |
| 51' | ⚽ | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 52' | 🟨 | Zdravko Kuzmanović · Málaga CF |
| 52' | 🟨 | Zdravko Kuzmanović · Málaga CF |
| 52' | 🟥 | Zdravko Kuzmanović · Málaga CF |
| 53' | 🟨 | Recio · Málaga CF |
| 53' | 🟨 | Aymeric Laporte · Athletic Club |
| 60' | 🟨 | Roberto Rosales · Málaga CF |
| 70' | ⚽ | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 81' | ⚽ | Paul Baysse · Málaga CF |
| 84' | ⚽ | Diego Rolán · Málaga CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ager Aketxe · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| coach days | 206.00 | 145.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1493.49 | 1641.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -58.41 | -7.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.72 |
| league points | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | -1.15 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |