← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 79% | 80% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 13% | 7.06 | fair |
| Girona win | 7% | 7% | 13.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ (og) | Aday Benítez · FC Barcelona |
| 23' | 🟨 | Pablo Maffeo · Girona |
| 41' | 🟨 | Aday Benítez · Girona |
| 48' | ⚽ (og) | Gorka Iraizoz · FC Barcelona |
| 69' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 82' | 🟨 | Olarenwaju Kayode · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 21 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.69 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.54 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadi Montilivi |
| coach days | 1375.00 | 114.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1514.53 | 1914.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.27 | 15.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 1.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 2.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| league points | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 88.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 68.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.53 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 2.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 7.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.40 |
| squad age | — | 27.52 |
| state index | -0.13 | 1.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 1.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |