← Primera Division 2017-18 · Wed, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 69% | 64% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 27% | 5.00 | value: +36% |
| Las Palmas win | 12% | 9% | 8.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | David García · Las Palmas |
| 44' | 🟨 | Gabriel Mercado · Sevilla FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Momo · Las Palmas |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jesús Navas · Sevilla FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jesús Navas · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 0 |
| 12 | Corners | 0 |
| 21 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days | 81.00 | 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1670.42 | 1472.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.13 | 8.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.70 |
| league points | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.50 | 1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.28 | — |
| state index | 1.13 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.32 | 1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |