← Primera Division 2017-18 · Wed, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero Lopez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 48% | 40% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
| Girona win | 23% | 31% | 4.32 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 64' | 🟨 | Juanpe · Girona |
| 73' | 🟨 | Douglas Luiz · Girona |
| 78' | 🟨 | Rubén Pérez · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joseba Zaldúa · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.57 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days | 1572.00 | 1372.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.63 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | — |
| elo | 1565.55 | 1564.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.21 | -7.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| league points | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | — |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.62 | 27.39 |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |