← Primera Division 2017-18 · Tue, Sep 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 65% | 71% | 1.50 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 21% | 17% | 4.78 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 14% | 12% | 6.99 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Santi Mina · Valencia CF |
| 55' | ⚽ | Simone Zaza · Valencia CF |
| 60' | ⚽ | Simone Zaza · Valencia CF |
| 63' | ⚽ | Simone Zaza · Valencia CF |
| 83' | 🟨 | Federico Ricca · Málaga CF |
| 86' | ⚽ | Rodrigo · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Mestalla |
| coach days | 80.00 | 202.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1557.12 | 1507.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.83 | -49.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.58 |
| league points | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.85 | — |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |