← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 40% | 47% | 2.47 | value: +15% |
| Girona win | 32% | 26% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Steven N'Zonzi · Sevilla FC |
| 25' | 🟨 | Juanpe · Girona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sébastien Corchia · Sevilla FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Bernardo Espinosa · Girona |
| 69' | ⚽ | Luis Muriel · Sevilla FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Daniel Carriço · Sevilla FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Clément Lenglet · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Franco Vázquez · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 0 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadi Montilivi |
| coach days | 1369.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.53 |
| elo | 1521.62 | 1662.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.15 | 14.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| league points | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | 1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 27.28 |
| state index | -0.02 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | 1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |