← Primera Division 2017-18 · Mon, Sep 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF win | 48% | 50% | 2.03 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.59 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 24% | 27% | 4.02 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Adrián González · Málaga CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jonathan Viera · Las Palmas |
| 48' | ⚽ | Diego González · Málaga CF |
| 61' | 🟨 | Recio · Málaga CF |
| 65' | 🟨 | Borja Bastón · Málaga CF |
| 67' | 🟨 | Dani Castellano · Las Palmas |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jonathan Calleri · Las Palmas |
| 80' | 🟨 | Michel Macedo · Las Palmas |
| 82' | 🟨 | Javier Ontiveros · Málaga CF |
| 88' | ⚽ | Loïc Rémy · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 22 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.35 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| coach days | 194.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.29 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1531.11 | 1437.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.22 | -41.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | 1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.07 | -1.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |