← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 61% | 57% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.04 | fair |
| Girona win | 15% | 20% | 6.67 | value: +31% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Beñat Etxebarria · Athletic Club |
| 24' | 🟨 | Pedro Alcala · Girona |
| 25' | ⚽ | Iker Muniain · Athletic Club |
| 27' | 🟨 | Alex Granell · Girona |
| 40' | 🟨 | Bernardo Espinosa · Girona |
| 53' | ⚽ | Aritz Aduriz · Athletic Club |
| 56' | 🟨 | Aday Benítez · Girona |
| 64' | 🟨 | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 68' | 🟨 | Mikel San José · Athletic Club |
| 80' | 🟨 | Douglas Luiz · Girona |
| 87' | 🟨 | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aymeric Laporte · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| coach days | 132.00 | 1362.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.84 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | — |
| elo | 1658.00 | 1529.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.22 | -20.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | — |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.94 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |