← Primera Division 2017-18 · Fri, Sep 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 46% | 45% | 2.13 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.22 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 24% | 26% | 4.17 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 48' | 🟨 | Amath Ndiaye · Getafe CF |
| 65' | ⚽ | Miguel Ángel Guerrero · Leganes |
| 70' | 🟨 | Juan Cala · Getafe CF |
| 74' | 🟨 | Erik Morán · Leganes |
| 83' | ⚽ | Álvaro Jiménez · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days | 1560.00 | 372.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1584.04 | 1574.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 50.80 | 14.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 66.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.02 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.82 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |