← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 49% | 41% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.42 | value: +8% |
| Málaga CF win | 23% | 28% | 4.33 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Alex Granell · Girona |
| 28' | ⚽ | Pedro Alcala · Girona |
| 55' | 🟨 | Gorka Iraizoz · Girona |
| 56' | 🟨 | Marc Muniesa · Girona |
| 58' | 🟨 | Javier Ontiveros · Málaga CF |
| 63' | 🟨 | Recio · Málaga CF |
| 64' | 🟨 | Emanuel Cecchini · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alex Mula · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadi Montilivi |
| coach days | 1347.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.54 |
| elo | 1520.35 | 1539.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.29 | 21.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.57 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.69 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |