← Primera Division 2017-18 · Mon, Aug 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Medie Jimenez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF win | 45% | 45% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.27 | fair |
| Eibar win | 25% | 29% | 3.85 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Charles Días · Eibar |
| 32' | 🟨 | Kike García · Eibar |
| 45' | 🟨 | Diego González · Málaga CF |
| 57' | ⚽ | Charles Días · Eibar |
| 83' | 🟨 | Iván Alejo · Eibar |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jony · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| coach days | 173.00 | 782.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1551.90 | 1543.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.75 | -11.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | -1.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.86 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |