← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Aug 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 82% | 82% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 12% | 8.25 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 6% | 6% | 15.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ (og) | Alin Toșca · FC Barcelona |
| 39' | ⚽ | Sergi Roberto · FC Barcelona |
| 52' | 🟨 | Jordi Alba · FC Barcelona |
| 63' | 🟨 | Matías Nahuel · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Digne · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 3 |
| 2 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.49 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 80.00 | 111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1899.31 | 1454.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.79 | -31.58 |
| eye test v1 | 1.95 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.60 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.55 | 0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.44 | — |
| state index | 2.13 | -0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.60 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |