← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Fernandez Borbalan, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 40% | 36% | 2.47 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 34% | 41% | 2.91 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Roberto Soldado · Villarreal CF |
| 4' | 🟨 | Jaume Costa · Villarreal CF |
| 34' | 🟨 | Simone Zaza · Valencia CF |
| 54' | ⚽ | Nani · Valencia CF |
| 58' | ⚽ | Manu Trigueros · Villarreal CF |
| 67' | 🟨 | Cédric Bakambu · Villarreal CF |
| 71' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
| 88' | ⚽ | Nicola Sansone · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Mestalla |
| coach days |
| 171.00 |
| 293.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 3.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1549.29 | 1647.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.24 | 11.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 46.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.71 | — |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |