← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 79% | 69% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 20% | 6.65 | value: +32% |
| Málaga CF win | 6% | 12% | 15.65 | value: +82% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Real Madrid CF |
| 55' | ⚽ | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
| 56' | 🟨 | Carlos Kameni · Málaga CF |
| 57' | 🟨 | Jony · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| coach days |
| 81.00 |
| 506.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1556.71 | 1904.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 65.80 | 18.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | 1.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 46.00 | 90.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 89.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 2.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 1.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 7.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.79 |
| state index | 1.02 | 1.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |