← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 92% | 76% | 1.06 | fair |
| Draw | 5% | 14% | 19.00 | value: +160% |
| Eibar win | 3% | 10% | 36.00 | value: +262% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Takashi Inui · Eibar |
| 19' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Escalante · Eibar |
| 30' | 🟨 | Ander Capa · Eibar |
| 41' | 🟨 | Sergio Busquets · FC Barcelona |
| 54' | 🟨 | Rubén Peña · Eibar |
| 61' | ⚽ | Takashi Inui · Eibar |
| 63' | ⚽ (og) | David Juncà · FC Barcelona |
| 73' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ander Capa · Eibar |
| 74' | 🟥 | Ander Capa · Eibar |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 11 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 3 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days | 1055.00 | 690.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.40 |
| elo | 2001.38 | 1648.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.34 | -19.57 |
| eye test v1 | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.76 |
| league points | 87.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.35 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.35 | -0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.83 | 27.61 |
| state index | 2.34 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.37 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |