← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 46% | 46% | 2.12 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.44 | fair |
| Athletic Club win | 25% | 31% | 3.86 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Atlético de Madrid | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Vicente Calderón |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1998.00 | 20.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 7.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1889.54 | 1739.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.39 | 14.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | 1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.64 |
| league points | 75.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 24.92 | 27.75 |
| state index | 1.33 | 1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |