← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 84% | 82% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 13% | 9.77 | value: +24% |
| CA Osasuna win | 6% | 6% | 16.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Vitolo · Sevilla FC |
| 20' | ⚽ | Franco Vázquez · Sevilla FC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Stevan Jovetić · Sevilla FC |
| 35' | ⚽ | Stevan Jovetić · Sevilla FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Oier · CA Osasuna |
| 60' | ⚽ | Franco Vázquez · Sevilla FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Steven N'Zonzi · Sevilla FC |
| 67' | 🟨 | Matías Kranevitter · Sevilla FC |
| 80' | ⚽ | Vitolo · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days | 353.00 | 139.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1643.30 | 1367.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.49 | 0.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.57 |
| league points | 69.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 37.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 0.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.38 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | -0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |