← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 50% | 35% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 42% | 3.61 | value: +53% ⚠ |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 23% | 22% | 4.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Raúl García · Deportivo Alavés |
| 64' | ⚽ | Nenad Krstičić · Deportivo Alavés |
| 89' | ⚽ | David Timor · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days |
| 1449.00 |
| 353.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.45 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1466.73 | 1562.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.51 | 43.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.82 |
| league points | 34.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |