← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero Lopez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 52% | 58% | 1.88 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.02 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 23% | 19% | 4.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Florin Andone · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 25' | 🟨 | Fernando Navarro · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 28' | ⚽ | Florin Andone · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 38' | 🟨 | Roque Mesa · Las Palmas |
| 39' | ⚽ | Carles Gil · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 44' | 🟨 | Carles Gil · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 48' | 🟨 | Pedro Mosquera · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 51' | 🟨 | Hernán · Las Palmas |
| 54' | 🟨 | Emre Çolak · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 54' | 🟨 | Momo · Las Palmas |
| 79' | 🟨 | Hernán · Las Palmas |
| 79' | 🟥 | Hernán · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 0 | Corners | 9 |
| 25 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Deportivo La Coruña | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.37 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio de Riazor |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 108.00 | 1051.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1455.39 | 1464.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.03 | -41.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| league points | 33.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.82 | -1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |