← Primera Division 2016-17 · Fri, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Clos Gomez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 59% | 47% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 31% | 4.47 | value: +41% |
| Granada win | 19% | 22% | 5.27 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Granada | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Nuevo Los Cármenes |
| coach days |
| 48.00 |
| 352.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1356.72 | 1546.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.19 | -17.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 43.70 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| league points | 20.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.54 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| state index | -1.81 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |