← Primera Division 2016-17 · Wed, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 80% | 74% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 15% | 8.10 | value: +22% |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 8% | 11% | 12.25 | value: +32% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Real Madrid CF |
| 30' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Real Madrid CF |
| 38' | 🟨 | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 48' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Real Madrid CF |
| 62' | 🟨 | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 62' | 🟥 | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jonny Otto · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 66' | 🟨 | John Guidetti · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 69' | ⚽ | John Guidetti · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 70' | ⚽ | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
| 73' | 🟨 | Hugo Mallo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 85' | 🟨 | Pablo Hernández · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 85' | 🟨 | Sergio Ramos · Real Madrid CF |
| 88' | ⚽ | Toni Kroos · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Municipal de Balaídos |
| coach days |
| 1051.00 |
| 502.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1548.57 | 1898.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.02 | 0.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 2.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 44.00 | 87.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 89.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 2.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 18.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.26 | 1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 7.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 9.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.39 |
| state index | -1.22 | 1.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.35 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |