← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 66% | 56% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 27% | 4.78 | value: +31% |
| Málaga CF win | 13% | 16% | 7.32 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | Xabi Prieto · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 45' | ⚽ | Luis Hernández · Málaga CF |
| 53' | 🟨 | Raúl Navas · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 75' | ⚽ | Recio · Málaga CF |
| 85' | ⚽ | Jon Bautista · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 86' | 🟨 | Miguel Torres · Málaga CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Michael Santos · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Anoeta |
| coach days |
| 560.00 |
| 74.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1608.49 | 1553.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.10 | 47.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 62.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.48 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |