← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alberto Undiano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 79% | 78% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 13% | 8.02 | value: +5% |
| Sevilla FC win | 8% | 9% | 11.73 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Nacho Fernández · Real Madrid CF |
| 23' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Real Madrid CF |
| 39' | 🟨 | Danilo · Real Madrid CF |
| 49' | ⚽ | Stevan Jovetić · Sevilla FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Álvaro Morata · Real Madrid CF |
| 69' | 🟨 | Gabriel Mercado · Sevilla FC |
| 78' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Real Madrid CF |
| 80' | 🟨 | Nacho Fernández · Real Madrid CF |
| 80' | 🟨 | Joaquín Correa · Sevilla FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Lucas Vázquez · Real Madrid CF |
| 84' | ⚽ | Toni Kroos · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| coach days |
| 499.00 |
| 347.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1893.71 | 1648.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.68 | -12.65 |
| eye test v1 | 2.27 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| league points | 84.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 1.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.50 | 1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.30 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.63 | — |
| state index | 1.37 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |