← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 88% | 76% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 12% | 11.80 | value: +46% |
| Las Palmas win | 3% | 12% | 28.50 | value: +239% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Lucas Digne · FC Barcelona |
| 25' | ⚽ | Neymar · FC Barcelona |
| 27' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 63' | ⚽ | Pedro Bigas · Las Palmas |
| 67' | ⚽ | Neymar · FC Barcelona |
| 71' | ⚽ | Neymar · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Gran Canaria |
| coach days |
| 1045.00 |
| 1048.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1468.26 | 1892.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.47 | 28.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | 2.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.71 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 4.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.87 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.77 |
| league points | 39.00 | 84.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 64.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.18 | 2.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 8.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.80 |
| state index | -1.16 | 1.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.96 | 1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |