← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 63% | 71% | 1.56 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 23% | 17% | 4.35 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 15% | 12% | 6.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Benito Villamarín |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 13.00 | 1991.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1558.59 | 1896.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.87 | 3.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.88 |
| league points | 37.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 27.15 | 25.72 |
| state index | -0.38 | 1.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |