← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Fernandez Borbalan, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 65% | 69% | 1.51 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.54 | fair |
| Leganes win | 14% | 10% | 7.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Aritz Aduriz · Athletic Club |
| 29' | 🟨 | Beñat Etxebarria · Athletic Club |
| 35' | 🟨 | Alexander Szymanowski · Leganes |
| 39' | 🟨 | Alberto Bueno · Leganes |
| 44' | 🟨 | Rubén Pérez · Leganes |
| 61' | ⚽ | Alexander Szymanowski · Leganes |
| 65' | 🟨 | Unai Bustinza · Leganes |
| 73' | 🟨 | Nabil El Zhar · Leganes |
| 83' | 🟨 | Mikel San José · Athletic Club |
| 83' | 🟨 | David Timor · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aritz Aduriz · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nereo Champagne · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| coach days | 13.00 | 1443.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.91 | 3.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1647.06 | 1460.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.84 | 13.79 |
| eye test v1 | 1.38 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| league points | 62.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | 1.09 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |