← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 47% | 57% | 2.07 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 29% | 23% | 3.39 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 24% | 20% | 4.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Manu García · Deportivo Alavés |
| 18' | ⚽ | Zouhair Feddal · Deportivo Alavés |
| 37' | ⚽ | Deyverson · Deportivo Alavés |
| 63' | 🟨 | Alexis Ruano · Deportivo Alavés |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 81' | 🟨 | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 84' | 🟨 | Andreu Fontàs · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jonny Otto · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |
| coach days |
| 347.00 |
| 1048.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1549.63 | 1561.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.29 | -40.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | -0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.72 |
| league points | 51.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | 0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| state index | 0.58 | -1.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |