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CA Osasuna 2–1 Granada

← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Inaki Vicandi Garrido, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
CA Osasuna win60%60%1.63fair
Draw22%22%4.37fair
Granada win17%18%5.70value: +5%

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'⚽Jhon Steven · CA Osasuna
41'⚽Adrian Ramos · Granada
55'🟨Martin Hongla · Granada
67'🟨Dimitri Foulquier · Granada
75'⚽Kenan Kodro · CA Osasuna
86'🟨Uche Agbo · Granada
90'🟨Sergio León · CA Osasuna

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
19Shots9
7On target3
8Corners3
11Fouls9
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCA OsasunaGranada
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.500.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.00
box share (last 5)0.560.44
cards avg (last 5)2.403.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Sadar
coach days
132.00
42.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.04
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.60-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)7.204.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.542.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.210.16
dominance (last 5)0.300.33
elo1358.971365.18
elo momentum (last 5)-10.55-32.18
eye test v1-0.58-0.46
eye trend v1-0.16-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)55.7043.20
form points (last 5)2.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.40-2.40
goals against avg (last 5)3.602.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.540.68
league points19.0020.00
league rank20.0019.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.006.00
matches since win5.0011.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4082.80
possession avg (last 5)38.2043.00
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.310.19
season ppg0.530.56
shot diff avg (last 5)-9.20-8.40
shots for avg (last 5)7.609.40
skill v1-1.080.21
sot against avg (last 5)6.406.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.402.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.402.80
state index-1.40-1.76
sterile dominance v1-0.62-0.03
threat rate (last 10)0.230.23
threat rate (last 3)0.250.15
threat rate (last 5)0.210.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.20