← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Ocon Arraiz, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 39% | 35% | 2.49 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 32% | 39% | 3.06 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Nani · Valencia CF |
| 59' | 🟨 | Fabián Orellana · Valencia CF |
| 75' | ⚽ | José Luis Gayà · Valencia CF |
| 81' | 🟨 | Álvaro Medrán · Valencia CF |
| 85' | 🟨 | Martín Montoya · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 346.00 | 163.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1558.97 | 1536.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.60 | -18.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| league points | 53.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.42 |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |