← Primera Division 2016-17 · Mon, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 56% | 62% | 1.75 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.89 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 19% | 18% | 5.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexander Szymanowski · Leganes |
| 15' | ⚽ | Nabil El Zhar · Leganes |
| 43' | 🟨 | Tito · Leganes |
| 65' | ⚽ | Gabriel Pires · Leganes |
| 76' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Siovas · Leganes |
| 80' | ⚽ | Alexander Szymanowski · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luciano · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days |
| 1437.00 |
| 7.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1444.12 | 1462.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.86 | -2.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 30.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | -0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |