← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Clos Gomez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 77% | 75% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 17% | 6.75 | value: +15% |
| CA Osasuna win | 8% | 8% | 11.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Ezequiel Garay · Valencia CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ezequiel Garay · Valencia CF |
| 47' | 🟨 | David García · CA Osasuna |
| 60' | 🟨 | José Luis Gayà · Valencia CF |
| 64' | 🟨 | Simone Zaza · Valencia CF |
| 70' | ⚽ | Simone Zaza · Valencia CF |
| 75' | ⚽ | Rodrigo · Valencia CF |
| 77' | 🟨 | Juan Rafael Fuentes · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Martín Montoya · Valencia CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Miguel Olavide · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Mestalla |
| coach days |
| 157.00 |
| 126.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1529.38 | 1366.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.00 | 8.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.66 | -0.67 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.53 |
| league points | 40.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | -1.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.18 | — |
| state index | -0.30 | -1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |