← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 42% | 50% | 2.32 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.29 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 28% | 24% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Deportivo La Coruña | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Riazor |
| coach days | 95.00 | 340.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1458.05 | 1549.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.32 | 1.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| league points | 32.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |