← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 90% | 84% | 1.09 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 8% | 13.60 | value: +7% |
| Granada win | 3% | 8% | 30.23 | value: +134% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | James Rodríguez · Real Madrid CF |
| 11' | ⚽ | James Rodríguez · Real Madrid CF |
| 30' | ⚽ | Álvaro Morata · Real Madrid CF |
| 35' | ⚽ | Álvaro Morata · Real Madrid CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Sverrir Ingi Ingason · Granada |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Granada | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Nuevo Los Cármenes |
| coach days |
| 35.00 |
| 491.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1367.61 | 1891.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.59 | -9.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 2.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| league points | 20.00 | 81.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 2.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 20.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 10.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 8.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.89 |
| state index | -1.75 | 1.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.00 |