← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 86% | 79% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 14% | 10.65 | value: +49% |
| Villarreal CF win | 5% | 7% | 19.00 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Sergi Roberto · FC Barcelona |
| 19' | 🟨 | Álvaro González · Villarreal CF |
| 21' | ⚽ | Neymar · FC Barcelona |
| 32' | ⚽ | Cédric Bakambu · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 64' | 🟨 | Andrés Iniesta · FC Barcelona |
| 69' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 72' | 🟨 | Roberto Soldado · Villarreal CF |
| 77' | 🟨 | Mateo Musacchio · Villarreal CF |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jaume Costa · Villarreal CF |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.00 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days |
| 1040.00 |
| 278.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 3.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1887.29 | 1659.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.63 | 23.60 |
| eye test v1 | 1.66 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.80 |
| league points | 81.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.31 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.03 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | 1.48 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.20 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |