← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Fernandez Borbalan, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 74% | 79% | 1.32 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 18% | 15% | 5.45 | fair |
| Eibar win | 8% | 6% | 12.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Atlético de Madrid | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.36 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Vicente Calderón |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 1983.00 | 675.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1892.95 | 1666.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.52 | 0.22 |
| eye test v1 | 1.03 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.87 | 0.69 |
| league points | 71.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | -1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.47 | 27.35 |
| state index | 1.49 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |