← Primera Division 2016-17 · Mon, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 52% | 48% | 1.88 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 24% | 27% | 4.09 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Sergio Escudero · Sevilla FC |
| 18' | 🟨 | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
| 28' | 🟨 | Franco Vázquez · Sevilla FC |
| 30' | ⚽ | Franco Vázquez · Sevilla FC |
| 38' | ⚽ | Pablo Fornals · Málaga CF |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ignacio Camacho · Málaga CF |
| 39' | 🟨 | Joaquín Correa · Sevilla FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Federico Ricca · Málaga CF |
| 51' | ⚽ | Sandro Ramírez · Málaga CF |
| 57' | ⚽ | Franco Vázquez · Sevilla FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Vicente Iborra · Sevilla FC |
| 77' | ⚽ | Diego Llorente · Málaga CF |
| 89' | ⚽ | Juankar · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juankar · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| coach days |
| 61.00 |
| 334.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1518.46 | 1670.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 50.21 | 9.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| league points | 39.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | 1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| state index | 0.54 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |