← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 44% | 44% | 2.21 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 27% | 30% | 3.67 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Guilherme · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 4' | ⚽ | Jhon Steven · CA Osasuna |
| 13' | 🟨 | Aitor Buñuel · CA Osasuna |
| 17' | 🟨 | Oier · CA Osasuna |
| 18' | ⚽ | Guilherme · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 70' | ⚽ | Guilherme · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 75' | 🟨 | Raúl Albentosa · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 78' | ⚽ (og) | Juanfran · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alejandro Arribas · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | RC Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days |
| 119.00 |
| 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1365.61 | 1459.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.35 | -3.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| league points | 18.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.53 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.20 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.15 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.95 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |