← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 42% | 47% | 2.32 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 32% | 28% | 3.08 | fair |
| Leganes win | 26% | 25% | 3.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Martín Mantovani · Leganes |
| 54' | 🟨 | Pedro León · Eibar |
| 62' | ⚽ | Kike García · Eibar |
| 66' | ⚽ | Sergi Enrich · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 11 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Ipurua Municipal Stadium |
| coach days |
| 669.00 |
| 1429.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1555.95 | 1452.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.33 | -8.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.68 |
| league points | 51.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.03 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |