← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Fernandez Borbalan, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 56% | 56% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.73 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 18% | 18% | 5.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 50' | ⚽ | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 61' | 🟨 | Andreu Fontàs · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 69' | 🟨 | Aymeric Laporte · Athletic Club |
| 83' | ⚽ | Mikel Rico · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 22 |
| 0 | On target | 12 |
| 0 | Corners | 11 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Municipal de Balaídos |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 1034.00 | 1429.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.61 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1595.59 | 1640.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.46 | 23.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| league points | 44.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |