← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 83% | 83% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 12% | 8.75 | value: +5% |
| Granada win | 6% | 5% | 17.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | 🟨 | Victorien Angban · Granada |
| 45' | ⚽ | Carlos Vela · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 65' | ⚽ | Adrian Ramos · Granada |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ezequiel Ponce · Granada |
| 84' | ⚽ | Juanmi · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 87' | 🟨 | Martin Hongla · Granada |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| venue | Anoeta |
| coach days |
| 545.00 |
| 28.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1602.38 | 1370.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.90 | -35.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 48.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.70 |
| league points | 58.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 0.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.13 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.41 | -1.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |