← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 86% | 83% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 11% | 11.50 | value: +28% |
| Valencia CF win | 6% | 6% | 17.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
| 25' | 🟨 | Toni Lato · Valencia CF |
| 27' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Real Madrid CF |
| 52' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Real Madrid CF |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ezequiel Garay · Valencia CF |
| 64' | 🟨 | Eliaquim Mangala · Valencia CF |
| 77' | 🟨 | Álvaro Morata · Real Madrid CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Luka Modric · Real Madrid CF |
| 82' | ⚽ | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
| 86' | ⚽ | Marcelo · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| coach days |
| 484.00 |
| 149.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1889.63 | 1531.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.40 | -1.33 |
| eye test v1 | 2.27 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| league points | 78.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 2.36 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.44 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.30 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 10.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 24.70 | 25.18 |
| state index | 1.15 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |