← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 66% | 62% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | 4.82 | value: +19% |
| Las Palmas win | 14% | 14% | 6.99 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Gran Canaria |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 1030.00 | 1976.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1587.06 | 1884.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.26 | 0.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.90 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.82 |
| league points | 39.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 27.43 | 25.84 |
| state index | -0.44 | 1.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.10 | -1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |