← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alberto Undiano, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 79% | 68% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 19% | 7.10 | value: +38% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 7% | 12% | 13.50 | value: +64% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand