← Primera Division 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alberto Undiano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 79% | 68% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 19% | 7.10 | value: +38% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 7% | 12% | 13.50 | value: +64% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 332.00 | 1033.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1660.30 | 1985.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.50 | -4.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 1.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 2.12 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| league points | 50.00 | 78.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | 1.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 8.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 24.52 | 27.03 |
| state index | 0.30 | 1.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |