← Primera Division 2016-17 · Thu, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 71% | 68% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.35 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 11% | 15% | 9.00 | value: +32% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Pablo Hernández · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 27' | 🟨 | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Hugo Mallo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 49' | ⚽ | Joaquín Correa · Sevilla FC |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 56' | 🟨 | Pablo Hernández · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 56' | 🟥 | Pablo Hernández · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 61' | 🟨 | Gustavo Cabral · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 79' | ⚽ | Wissam Ben Yedder · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 20 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days |
| 330.00 |
| 1031.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1663.63 | 1602.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.55 | -14.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.93 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.82 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.78 |
| league points | 65.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.25 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |