← Primera Division 2016-17 · Thu, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 70% | 74% | 1.40 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 19% | 17% | 5.04 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 11% | 9% | 9.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Markel Susaeta · Athletic Club |
| 13' | 🟨 | Darko Brašanac · Real Betis Balompié |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Aritz Aduriz · Athletic Club |
| 58' | 🟨 | Aïssa Mandi · Real Betis Balompié |
| 60' | ⚽ | Iker Muniain · Athletic Club |
| 63' | ⚽ | Rubén Castro · Real Betis Balompié |
| 72' | 🟨 | Antonio Adán · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| coach days |
| 1426.00 |
| 177.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.86 | 1.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1635.95 | 1485.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.40 | 7.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| league points | 56.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.89 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |