← Primera Division 2016-17 · Thu, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 38% | 36% | 2.55 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.13 | fair |
| Eibar win | 30% | 34% | 3.24 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Cristian Rivera · Eibar |
| 23' | 🟨 | Kike García · Eibar |
| 26' | 🟥 | Asier Riesgo · Eibar |
| 41' | 🟨 | Manu García · Deportivo Alavés |
| 45' | 🟨 | Zouhair Feddal · Deportivo Alavés |
| 72' | 🟨 | Theo Hernández · Deportivo Alavés |
| 87' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Ely · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |
| coach days |
| 330.00 |
| 666.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1520.01 | 1555.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.63 | 17.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 44.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |